Author: Lowe_Institute

Deficit Picture Likely Worse Than It Seems

Article by Armine Kardashyan and Weston Crewe Days before the US was expected to have its first ever default, Congressional Republicans and the White House negotiated a deal that lifted the debt ceiling and cut government spending. This was in part because the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projections showed substantial deficits for the foreseeable future.

Is The Wisdom of Crowds Prone to Exaggeration? Evidence from Metaculus

Article by Sambhav Maheshwari and Karan Goel Upon completing this article, you’ll have effortlessly forecasted the future multiple times. The headline alone gave you a rough idea of whether this article will pique your interest. Now, these initial lines serve as a litmus test, determining if the remainder merits your attention. We’re all natural forecasters

Emotions Running High: Political Stress and Domestic Violence Reports

Article by Anya Syed Prior studies show that when local NFL teams lose, especially when unexpected, reports of at-home violence by men against their partners increase by 10% (Card and Dahl 2011). Research also shows that Americans increasingly treat politics as a sport where they identify heavily with the wins and losses of their team. We investigate whether

Did American Investors Believe Evergrande would be China’s Lehman Moment?

Article by Katie Chen On September 22nd, 2021, Chinese real estate giant Evergrande failed to meet a coupon deadline totaling $83 million of bond interest payments. News outlets drew comparisons between  Evergrande’s crisis and the Lehman Brothers’ collapse; it seemed as though Evergrande’s potential bankruptcy had the ability to trigger global financial panic.   As the

How are Global Interest Rates Responding to Recent Inflationary Pressures?

Article by Jennifer Lim Following an unprecedented intentional shutdown of economic activity to fight the pandemic, switching it back on has caused a lot of turbulence. As the restrictions loosened, consumers armed with stimulus money entered a sluggish market with dysfunctional supply chains and significant labor shortages. This forced consumer prices in the United States

Football to Manufacturing: The Divergent Path of Nearby Competitors

Article by Joseph Zhong Imagine you are a five-star quarterback that grew up in Alabama, with guarantees that you would be the starting quarterback your freshman year. Which school would you pick: the University of Alabama or Samford University? The answer is obvious: University of Alabama. But why did you choose it? The coaching staff,

COVID-19: Baby Bump or Baby Dump?

Article by Sambhav Maheshwari  The COVID-19 pandemic, by changing experiences across transportation, well-being, caregiving, health care, and jobs, has caused society-wide shifts in behavior with potentially far reaching consequences. One of these is the impact on birth rates with potentially long-lived demographic consequences.  In 2020, many academics predicted that the incidence of a pandemic (COVID)

The Inland Empire’s Industry Resilience

Article By Anya Syed During the height of the Covid-19 pandemic, unemployment rates soared throughout the US, with rates differing across US counties. According to the most recent UCLA Anderson Forecast Report, LA County’s unemployment rate was 4.9%, while Riverside county’s unemployment rate was 3.6% in September 2022. Since the beginning of the pandemic, the

Does Mail-in Voting Actually Increase Election Participation?

Article By Noah Hendelman The 2020 United States presidential election saw a major increase in mail-in voting as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic. This shift was politicized, with republicans falsely claiming the method was more prone to widespread fraud, and democrats hoping that an increased turnout stemming from mail-in voting would benefit their party.